The first Belmont Stakes was staged at Jerome Park on June 19, 1867, a year after its founder brought organized racing to the metropolitan New York City area.

Leonard Jerome named the race for his friend August Belmont, a leading banker that helped finance the track. Jerome Park, an oddly shaped, English-style racecourse, required runners to negotiate three turns instead of two because of a dip in the middle of the backstretch.

A filly named Ruthless won the inaugural Belmont a half-dozen years before the Preakness debuted and eight years ahead of the Kentucky Derby.

The race was moved to Morris Park in 1890 when Jerome Park gave way to a city reservoir because the water system needed an upgrade. In 1905, the Belmont was first staged at a new track in Elmont, New York, after August Belmont II, William Collins Whitney and several business partners built the most lavish track in America.

Many major stakes from Jerome and Morris parks were transferred to Belmont Park, which has hosted the third leg of the Triple Crown except for 1963-67 when the race was staged at Aqueduct while Belmont was being rebuilt.

The expression “Triple Crown” pertaining to thoroughbreds was introduced by Daily Racing Form columnist Charles Hatton while covering Gallant Fox en route to the ’30 TC title.

Since ’40, when Bimelech scored against five rivals, 19 odds-on favorites won the Belmont. A year later, TC champ Whirlaway only faced three challengers. In ’43, TC winner Count Fleet demolished two foes by 25 lengths.

On four odds-on choices competed in fields of six or less. The most memorial Belmont, in many fans eyes, was in ’73 when super Secretariat roared to a 31-length victory over four rivals in the record time of 2:24 for the 1½ miles and became the first of three TC winners in that decade.

I asked Steve Haskin, Bloodhorse.com senior correspondent, what was the most exciting Belmont he witnessed and was surprised by his response.

“Last year’s,” Haskin said, “because of the boy vs. girl angle, and it was just a gut-wrencher to the wire, with the filly (Rags to Riches) winning despite stumbling at the start. That was as game a performance as I’ve seen, especially considering what Curlin has gone on to become.

“What no Affirmed and Alydar you ask? To be honest, I was in England for the (’78) English Derby and Royal Ascot and never saw it live. In the Daily Telegraph, at the end of the racing story, was a line that read, ‘And in America, Affirmed beat Alydar by a head to win the Triple Crown.’ That’s how I found out that result. Of course, it has to be one of the greatest races of all time.

“And the Birdstone-Smarty Jones (’04) Belmont had more excitement than any race I’ve ever seen.”

Even before trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. revealed Big Brown developed a hairline quarter-crack on the inside of his front left hoof wall, the son of Boundary wasn’t scaring off many horses that stand in his way of becoming the 12th TC champ.

Dutrow said Sunday the crack was discovered 24 hours earlier, was very minor and he’s confident the horse will be 100 percent on June 7. On Monday a set of sutures made of stainless steel drew together the crack, which was related to past foot problems.

Before the announcement, the field was expected to be about the average size since ’40 – nine. Three committed challengers that hit the board in the first two TC jewels are Denis of Cork, third in the Kentucky Derby; Macho Again, Preakness runner-up; and Icabad Crane, third at Pimlico.

Other scheduled runners are Tale of Ekati, fourth in the Derby; Anak Nakal, seventh at Churchill Downs; Churchill Downs; Casino Drive, winner of the Peter Pan; and Tomcito, seventh in that stakes race at Belmont Park,

And there are several others that could bump up the field as high as 11. Some pretty good horses won the Belmont against 10 rivals during the past 25 years: Swale, ’84; A. P. Indy, ’92; and Thunder Gulch, ’95.

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Eighteen times since World War II horses went into the Belmont Stakes and a possible date with destiny to become a Triple Crown champion.

That always reminds me of the 1942 pop hit that rings true today: “I’ve Heard That Song Before.” It was featured in the film appropriately entitled “Youth on Parade” — the year after Whirlaway became the fifth 3-year-old to perform the feat since Sir Barton in ’19.

Eighteen times the racing gods crushed Triple Crown dreams since ’44 when Pensive lost by a half-length to Bounding Home. Actually, Belmont Park has been the Graveyard of Champions, even more so than Saratoga.

Close but no cigar has never been so telling: 0-8-5. In addition, five off-the-board runners in the Belmont included three fourth-place finishes.

Since Affirmed edged Alydar in ’78, I’ve had my fingers crossed 10 times that we’d see a Triple Crown champ.

In ’79, Spectacular Bid, the 1-5 favorite in a field of eight, looked unbeatable riding a 12-race winning streak that including seven straight victories as a sophomore.

The son of Bold Bidder, attempting to become the fourth Triple Crown champ during the ’70s, was bumped at the break and fell behind early. However, by the time he hit the stretch he was in command.

But Spectacular Bid weakened in the drive and wound up third. After the race, trainer Doug Delp revealed a safety pin had been found in one of his hooves the morning of the race. That caused a serious infection and the colt was sidelined for a while.

Big Brown is the seventh horse in the past dozen years with eyes focused on America’s most treasured racing record I’m hoping the son of Boundary has better luck that the past six. Let’s return to those June afternoons of yesteryear:

June 7, 1997: Silver Charm gave Bob Baffert three chances in six years to saddle a Triple Crown winner. The colt fought for the lead several times in the seven-horse field before getting in front of Free House during the drive. Then Touch Gold appeared on the far outside in deep stretch and rocketed to the wire first by three-quarters of a length.

June 6, 1998: Baffert sent out Real Quiet against 10 challengers. Up by four lengths at the eighth pole, the Kentucky Derby-Preakness winner began to shorten stride and bear out, which some experts said would have disqualified him if Victory Gallop hadn’t got his nose in front.

June 5, 1999: D. Wayne Lukas saddled Charismatic in a 12-horse field. After dueling with Silverbulletday much of the way, he tried to hold off Lemon Drop Kid and Vision and Verse, who hit the wire heads apart in that order. Sensing a bad step after Charismastic finished third, Chris Antley pulled him up and held the left foreleg to prevent further injury. Successful surgery sent the horse to stud.

June 8, 2002: Baffert’s War Emblem, facing 10 rivals, stumbled and nearly fell to his knees leaving the gate. After working his way from fifth to the lead after six furlongs, he dropped out of contention at the top of the stretch and ran eighth – the worst finish of any Derby-Preakness winner.

June 7, 2003: Funny Cide was only opposed by five challengers, the smallest field since ’94 when Preakness winner Tabasco Cat defeated Derby champ Go for Gin. Empire Maker, who skipped the Preakness after running second in the Derby, defeated third-place finisher Funny Cide in the slop as Ten Most Wanted ran second.

June 5, 2004: Smarty Jones entered the race hoping to join Seattle Slew (’77) as the only undefeated winners of the Triple Crown. Breaking from the outside post against eight foes, he took over after a mile and increased his lead to 3 ½ lengths with a quarter-mile to go. Birdstone, making up ground in the stretch, closed steadily to win by a length.

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Big Brown was installed as the heavy odds-on early favorite in the 133rd Preakness that attracted a surprising number of challengers — 12.

The last 13-horse fields came during the past decade and both winners of the Kentucky Derby prevailed: War Emblem in ’02 and Charismatic in ’99.

Ironically, they posted slower speed figures than in Louisville. Four other Derby champs stepped up in Baltimore and their speed figures climbed.

Big Brown, 1-2, will break from post 7, which has produced five winners in the past 19 years. He’s 13 slots closer toward the rail than he was in the Derby. The son of Boundary and Gayego are the only two from this year’s Run for the Roses.

It’s the sixth time since Derby horses began running in the Preakness 90 years ago that two starters at Churchill Downs raced at Pimlico. The last year was ’80 when Codex beat the Derby-winning filly Genuine Risk by 4 ¾ lengths.

Naturally, undefeated Big Brown holds the upper hand off his impressive Derby triumph. He has taken it easy, jogging over an off track at Churchill Downs several times because of wet weather.

“He’s good,” trainer Rick Dutrow said. “He came out of the race good and he’s been training good.”

Gayego, 8-1, unfortunately will break from post 12. The son of Gilded Time finished 17th in the Derby, but trainer Paulo Lobo pointed out he didn’t overexert himself after a sluggish start from the 19th post. He was steadied in traffic during the first quarter-mile and a bit rank behind Big Brown while very wide on the first turn.

“He came back very well,” Lobo said. “He’s been eating everything. He’s feeling happy. He’s an extremely good shipper.” Gayego traveled from California to Oaklawn Park where he won the Arkansas Derby on April 12 with a Beyer speed figure of 103. Blinkers should help him concentrate.

With undefeated Big Brown in a class by himself, averaging 107 Beyers in three victories this year, the dozen challengers will be going for runner-up honors.

First, the pretenders have several things in common, but all are in trouble – they’re too slow.

Stevil, 30-1, post 9: Finished fourth in the Blue Grass, has no stakes victories and is slowest of the bunch.

Yankee Bravo, 15-1, No. 4: Won California Derby, ran fourth in Santa Anita Derby and finished third in Louisiana Derby, but comes off a six-week layoff and his career best Beyer speed figure is 89.

Giant Moon, 30-1, No. 11: Has a stakes win back in January and ran fourth in Wood, but also is coming off six weeks rest. His highest Beyer is 93.
Kentucky Bear, 15-1, No. 8: Third in the Blue Grass, he lacks a stakes triumph this year, hasn’t raced in five weeks and also has a Beyer of 93.

Riley Tucker, 30-1, No. 10: Ran third in the Lexington, his fourth start this year, but lacks a stakes victory during career despite a 96 Beyer.

Three have a shot at hitting the board depending on how the race plays:
Racecar Rhapsody, 30-1, No. 6: He needs a fast pace. Although fourth in his last four starts, the sophomore has a late kick and made up a dozen lengths in the final quarter-mile of the Lexington.

Never has run a bad race and the odds look enticing.
Icabad Crane, 30-1, No. 3: Broke maiden in his only ’07 start and scored in 3-year-old debut. After finishing third in Rushaway at Turfway Park, he captured Pimlico’s Federico Tesio at 1 1/8 miles on April 19. Colt possesses tactical speed and is close enough turning for home to hit the board. Like the odds.

Macho Again, 20-1, No. 1: Coming off April 26 Derby Trial triumph with a 99 Beyer in his fourth start of the year, this tough horse comes home fast and doesn’t back down when eyeballing rivals. However, he hasn’t won beyond 7 ½ furlongs.
These contenders have the best chance of hitting the board despite obvious drawbacks.

Hey Byrn, 20-1, post 13: Colt won an allowance contest in February at Gulfstream Park with a 97 Beyer in the first of three triumphs in four starts this year, including the Holy Bull on April 12 at 1 3/16 miles. He and Big Brown are the only two winners beyond 1 1/8 miles.

Gayego, 8-1, post 12: Can hit the board if he stays out of trouble and manages a clean trip. Adding blinkers should keep him focused.

Behindatthebar, 10-1, post 5: Coming off two consecutive victories, the son of Forest Wildcat bypassed the Derby for this race after posting a 99 Beyer winning the Lexington. Mostly running on synthetic services, he needs to improve off his fifth place finish on the dirt in the El Camino Real Derby at Bay Meadows, but has worked well at Belmont.

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Big Brown is aiming to become the seventh Kentucky Derby champion in the past dozen years to capture the Preakness.

All previous six winners — Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones  — flirted with immortality before failing to become the 12th Triple Crown champion and the first since Affirmed in 1978.

Big Brown is the first winner since Citation in ’48 not to face any Derby runners in the Preakness because a fever sidelined fifth-place finisher Recapturetheglory.

There could be as many as a dozen challengers that didn’t race in the Derby, but such horses haven’t done well in the Preakness since the early ’80s.

During a four-year span, three such thoroughbreds wore the back-eyed susans: Codex, ’80; Aloma’s Ruler, ’82; and Deputed Testimony, ’83. Since ’84, only a pair of 3-year-olds that tried that strategy won at Pimlico as heavy favorites off their Derby victories went down to defeat.

In ’00, Red Bullet upset Fusachi Pegasus by three lengths. In ’96, Bernardini scored by 5 ¼ lengths as Barbaro broke down shortly after the start of the 1 3/16 miles.

Big Brown’s trainer and jockey have ties to the Old Line State. Conditioner Rick Dutrow Jr. was born and raised in Maryland, but has been based in New York for years.

His father won four training titles during the ’70s at Pimlico. “Every time Preakness would roll around Dad would win a race on Preakness Day,” he told Brisnet.com “Naturally I would like to won a race like that. It’s where I grew up.”

Dutrow’s older brother Tony was a top Maryland conditioner before moving his stable to Philadelphia Park four years ago.

Jockey Kent Desormeaux, who guided Big Brown in all three ’08 outings, won five Pimlico riding titles during the ’80s, plus an Eclipse Award for outstanding apprentice rider. He had nine mounts in the Preakness, winning aboard Real Quiet in ’98.

Since the ’90s, I wagered on several winners of the Preakness who disappointed in the Derby: Hansel, ’91, who also won the Belmont; Timber Country, ’95; Louis Quatorze, ’96, who led at every call; and Point Given, who also captured the Belmont, ’01.

The Preakness, staged at seven different distances, has been run at 1 3/16 miles since ’25 when it was extended about 110 yards from 1 1/8 miles.

Last year’s record crowd of 121,263 saw Horse of the Year Curlin nose out Derby champ Street Sense. The winner covered the distance in 1:53 2/5, equaling the fastest Preakness timed recorded by Louis Quatorze in ’96 and Tank’s Prospect in ’85.

Another 3-year-old probably should have shared the record.

On May 19, 1973, Secretariat broke alertly in the Preakness, but was taken back to sixth and last. Then jockey Ron Turcotte, sensing the pace was slow, gunned the Kentucky Derby winner to the lead.

At the half-mile pole, Secretariat was 2 ½ lengths in front. The Daily Racing Form chart caller described the early action:

“Secretariat broke well and was eased back and relaxed as the field passed the stands for the first time. He was guided outside two rivals entering the clubhouse turn and responding when Turcotte moved his hands on the reins, made a spectacular run to take command entering the backstretch.”

The margin didn’t change the remainder of the 1 3/16 miles. The Racing Form’s chart caller summed up the finish: “Secretariat was not threatened thereafter and confidently ridden to the finish.”

Pimlico’s infield telemeter displayed the time of 1:55. It was wrong. Some of the crowd crossing the track to reach the infield had damaged the electronic timer, causing it to malfunction.

Pimlico clocker E. T. McLean Jr. recorded a hand time of 1:54 2/5. However, two Racing Form clockers had the time at 1:53 2/5, which would have broken the track record of 1:54 set two years earlier by Canonero II.

In days following the race, CBS entered the controversy and displayed side-by-side taped replays of Secretariat and Canonero II showing Secretariat getting to the finish line first.

The hullabaloo lingered until the Maryland Jockey Club, responsible for maintaining Preakness records, recognized the track’s clocker hand-timed 1:54 2/5 as the official time.

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Horses worth watching, a list of runners compiled by handicapper/turf writer Greg Melikov that should do well next time out or improve considerably, won three races, ran second three times and finished third three times since April 6.

ARLINGTON PARK

Boots Are Walking: Raced fourth early, dropped to fifth more than 2 ½ lengths behind after three-eighths of a mile, angled out in stretch, rallied to make up 2 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a neck at five furlongs on May 4; ran final quarter in 12 seconds.

BELMONT PARK

Can’t Refuse: Raced eighth more than 7 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, angled out top of the stretch and closed fast from seventh to finish second by a neck at six furlongs on a good turf course May 3; ran final quarter in 23 1/5.

J Z Warrior: Pressed pace in third within a length after a half-mile, lost ground four wide into stretch, made up 1 ½ lengths in stretch and finished second beaten a neck at six furlongs on April 5; ran final quarter in 24 4/5 at Hawthorne. (Stalked leaders in third more than 2 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, came four wide into stretch and failed to threaten finishing third at seven furlongs on May 3.

Final Story: Raced second 3 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, saved ground into stretch, angled out and finished third beaten a nose and a neck at 6 ½ furlongs on April 17 at Aqueduct. (Pressed pace more than 1 ½ lengths behind in third after a half-mile, lost ground entering stretch and finished third at six furlongs on May 2.)

CALDER

Lemon Drop Girl: Raced eighth more than five lengths behind after three-eighths of a mile, rallied three wide from seventh in stretch to make up five lengths and finished third beaten a length at five furlongs on the turf May.3

CHURCHILL DOWNS

Le Dauphin: Raced fourth more than five lengths behind after a half-mile, advanced three wide on far turn into stretch, made up 1 ¼ lengths and gained second by a neck at 1 1/8 miles on the turf May 1.

Crypto Warrior: Sluggish at start, raced 11th more than 10 lengths back after a half-mile, advanced inside to fifth in stretch and closed willingly to make up nearly 3 ½ lengths and finished third beaten a half-length and a neck at seven furlongs on April 30.

DELAWARE PARK

One More Trick: Broke on top, went to the front, led by five lengths after a half-mile and was ridden out to draw way off by 21 lengths on April 28; ran six furlongs in 1:11 1/5.

HOLLYWOOD PARK

Catastaire: Raced 10th more than five lengths behind after a half-mile, split rivals on far turn, came out a bit into stretch, in tight quarters mid-stretch, split horses again from fifth and rallied to make up more than three lengths and finished second beaten a nose at 1 1/16 miles on the turf May 3.

LONE STAR PARK

La Estrellita: Raced sixth more than 11 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied from fifth five wide into stretch, closed fast to make up 4 ¾ lengths and finished second beaten a neck at a mile and 70 yards on March 28 at Sam Houston Race Track. (Raced seven early, dropped back to 10th more than nine lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied six wide entering stretch and gained second at 1 1/16 miles on the turf May 3.)

PHILADELPHIA PARK

Oh So Suave: Raced more than four lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, lost ground entering stretch, split rivals from fifth, closed fast to make up nearly 4 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a neck at six furlongs on May 3.

Spirit of Gulch: Raced fifth early, advanced to third pressing pace two heads back after a half-mile, moved boldly three wide on turn, gained lead in stretch and drew off to win by 2 ¼ lengths at six furlongs on April 17. (Tracked pace 3 ½ lengths behind in third after a half-mile, rallied in mid-stretch to grab lead and drew off to win by 5 ½ lengths under mild urging at 6 ½ furlongs on May 4.)

De Fearless One: Raced more than 6 ½ lengths behind in seventh after three-eighths of a mile, rallied extremely wide from fourth in stretch, made up more than 3 ¾ lengths and closed with good energy to finished second beaten three-quarters of a length at 5 ½ furlongs on March 25. (Broke fifth and last, advanced to third more than 1 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied to second on stretch, but couldn’t catch winner and held place at six furlongs on April 13.)

PIMLICO

Don’ttrythisathome: Set a pressured pace along the rail, led by a half-length after a half-mile, drew away through the lane and was ridden out to the wire winning by 7 ¾ lengths on May 3; ran the six furlongs in 1:09 1/5.

River Kwai: Raced seventh more than 6 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, swung wide entering stretch and rallied in stretch to make up three lengths and lost by a length at a mile on a good turf course.

PRAIRIE MEADOWS

Caliandra: Raced fifth more than two lengths behind after a half-mile, lost ground swinging five wide into stretch and closed fast to make up nearly three lengths and finished second beaten a nose at six furlongs on May 3.

Splash of Bold: Tracked pace more than four lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, rallied four wide on turn to second in stretch and won by a half-length at six furlongs on March 26 at Oaklawn Park. (Broke sharply, set pace by a half-length after a half-mile, shook clear by three lengths in mid-stretch and won by a half-length at six furlongs on April 6 at Oaklawn; returned $12.60 on front end.)

Lord’s View: Raced fifth more than three lengths behind after a half-mile, lost ground rallying six wide to third, made up two lengths finishing second by 1 ¼ lengths at six furlongs on a sealed sloppy surface April 18. (Raced fourth early, dropped to fifth more than two lengths behind after a half-mile, angled off rail in stretch and finished second by a half-length at six furlongs on May 2.)

Sole of the City: (Pressed pace a half-length behind in second after three-eighths of a mile, seized command in stretch and drew off by 1 ¾ lengths under firm handling at 5 ½ furlongs on a sealed sloppy surface on March 22 at Hawthorne.) Raced second early, led by 1 ½ lengths after a half-mile, increased margin to five lengths in stretch and prevailed by 3 ½ lengths under solid hand urging at six furlongs on May 3.)

SANTA ANITA

Excessive Fun: Broke slowly, raced ninth more than eight lengths behind after a half-mile, moved up off rail around rival to fourth in stretch, steadied slightly at sixteenth pole and rallied late to make up three lengths and finished second beaten a half-length at 6 ½ furlongs on April 7. (Raced fifth more than 3 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, came four wide into street and finished third at 6 ½ furlongs on April 20.)

TURF PARADISE

Tenatious: Raced eighth more than three lengths behind after a half-mile, quickly looped rivals nearing quarter pole, scampered to the lead in stretch and drew off through the lane to win by 9 ½ lengths ridden out at a mile on the turf April 28. (Racing 8 ½ lengths behind in seventh after a half-mile, advanced into contention on far turn, rallied from third in stretch, made up 2 ½ lengths and prevailed by a neck at a mile on the turf May 3.)

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Hours of research on the 134th Kentucky Derby failed to single out a horse that I feel comfortable betting to win. This is the first time in years that I must throw a dart at the bullseye on the wagering board.

However, I have come up with several 3-year-olds I believe have the best chance to hit the board. Here are the thoroughbreds I’ll be using in exactas, trifectas and a Pick 3.

If any contender has a big shot to win it all, it’s Colonel John. The son of Tiznow, who won the first of his two Breeders’ Cup Classics in 2000 at Churchill Downs, captured both preps at 1 1/8 miles. In six career starts, he never was more than three lengths behind in the stretch and won four times and was runner-up twice.

Granted this will be his first start on the dirt, but he took to the main track, firing a bullet 57 4/5 for five furlongs – the best of 62 works on Sunday. The last two winners of the Derby posted bullet works: Street Sense last year and Barbaro in ’06.

I intend to use Court Vision because he stands a good chance of hitting the board if he can stay closer to the pace. The son of Gulch has a solid foundation as a juvenile, winning a pair of stakes, including the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs.

Blinkers were placed on Court Vision April 17 and he responded with a bullet 46 1/5 for four furlongs — the fastest of 25 works. Garrett Gomez stays aboard instead of riding Colonel John, letting Cory Nakatani to keep the mount.

I really liked Gayego coming into this race, but he drew the 19th post with the last pick in the Derby Draw. Consider this: No horse since the first running back in 1875 breaking from that slot has visited the winner’s circle.

But the son of Gilded Time has won on both synthetic and dirt surfaces. When pressed in the stretch while on the lead in the Arkansas Derby, he kicked it in and increased his margin over the closing Z Fortune.

He negotiated five furlongs in the mud at Churchill Downs last Saturday traveling 1:01. Mike Smith, who on aboard longshot champ Giacomo in ’05, has ridden him in all five-career starts during which he triumphed three times and placed twice.

You can’t leave out the likely favorite because the son of Boundary just might not know any bounds. Big Brown has been faster than a UPS truck running an hour behind schedule.

He won from outside 12 post in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, which is no more difficult as the outside 20 post he drew at Churchill Downs. While lacking experience, he has the highest speed figures in both preps this year.

I’m leaving out several horses that performed badly in their final prep. The best closer in the race is Pyro, who won twice coming off the pace this year before failing to run a lick in the Blue Grass on Keeneland’s Polytrack. The main reason: his times in those victories were quite slow.

I’m using all four of my selections in the late Pick 3, which ends with the 10th race, and an extacta or two.

I intend to key Colonel John and Court Vision in a trifecta, using Gayego and Big Brown in the second spot, and all four in the third tier with Smooth Air, runner-up to Big Brown in the Florida Derby, and Z Fortune, second to Gayego at Oaklawn Park.

Good Luck all!

by Bookmaker Racebook

The morning line 3-1 favorite in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby will break from the outside post position. It won’t be the first time Big Brown has done so in his brief racing career.

The son of Boundary roared out of post 12 in the Florida Derby on March 31 and won by five lengths recording the fastest 1 1/8 miles since 1996 – 1:48. The undefeated 3-year-old made the lead by the first call.

The 3-year-old’s connections, selecting 16th following a draw earlier Wednesday to determine the order in which posts would be selected, went for 20.

That’s a bad omen. Only one horse breaking from that post won in 133 runnings: Clyde Van Dusen in ’29.

“We prefer just to break on the outside, trainer Richard Dutrow said. “We get assured of a clean trip. If he breaks good, we figure it’s to our advantage. We had a few good choices and felt we took the best shot.”

Dutrow has been really confident before he or his horse even arrived in Louisville. “Until somebody shows me the beast, this is not a tough horse race,” he said last week. “I just haven’t see any other horse with my eyes that I think can beat him, he said this week.

Illinois Derby victor Recapturetheglory, 20-1 who probably will contest for the lead, will try to become the second winner from post 18. Gato Del Sol did it in ’82.

Only two posts have failed to produce winners: 17 and 19.

Cowboy Cal, 20-1, one of two colts trained by Todd Pletcher, drew post 17. Pletcher, by the way, is zero for 19 in derbies. Gayego, 15-1, comes out of post 19.

Tale of Ekati, 15-1, who captured the Wood Memorial, will break from post 2, which has the most victories dating back to 1875. But the last winner was ’78 Triple Crown champ Affirmed.

Cool Coal Man comes out of post 1, which recorded a dozen champs. But the last winner was Winning Colors, who led all the way in ’88.

The early second and third choices drew favorable posts. Colonel John, 4-1, will break from 10. The last winner was Giacomo in ’05, the third in 19 years. Pyro, 6-1, drew 9, which last produced the Derby champ in ’72.

Eight Belles, 15-1, the lone filly, drew 5, which has produced the most winners since ’88 – four.

Two trainers that saddled Derby champs in the 21st Century hope history repeats numbers-wise. Michael Matz had first pick and selected 8 for Visionaire, 20-1, the same one he chose for Barbaro in ’06. Next up was Barclay Tagg, who took 7. His Funny Cide scored from that post in ’03.

Anak Nakal, 30-1, drew 3; Alysheba triumphed in ’87. Z Fortune, 15-1, breaks from 6, which last produced a winner in ’93. Court Vision, 20-1, post 4, trying to follow ’77 Triple Crown champ Seattle Slew.

Other posts: 11, Z Humor, 30-1; 12, Smooth Air, 20-1; 13, Bob Black Jack, 20-1; 14, Monba, 15-1; 15, Adriano, 15-1; and Denis of Cork, 20-1.

by Bookmaker Racebook