The 134th Kentucky Derby is difficult to handicap for several reasons ranging from speed figures to varying track surfaces.

For instance, a dozen contenders won 14 key preps from February through April. The only two-time winners, Pyro and Colonel John, haven’t posted a triple-digit figure this year.

Pyro ran a dismal 10th in the Blue Grass on Keeneland’s Polytrack. The son of Pulpit and six other colts finished fifth or worse in their final prep. The last horse to triumph at Churchill Downs after running that poorly or worse in the final prep was Iron Liege, fifth in ’57.

Colonel John is yet to run on the dirt. Nearly half of the prospective field had one or more preps on synthetic surfaces.

So what’s a handicapper to do? One key to success just might lie in the speed figures posted in preps regardless of surfaces.

I believe Derby history sheds some light on the subject. In the last 16 years, only two winners failed to post a triple-digit Beyer speed number in any of their final three starts: Sea Hero in ’93 and Giacomo in ’05. Both recorded the lowest two winning figures during that time span.

From ’92 through ’07, a dozen Derby champs earned or matched the highest speed figure in one of their final two preps. The longest streak ran from ’96 through ’04 when several of the top Beyers were posted: Silver Charm, 115 in ’97; Monarchos, 116 in ’01; and War Emblem, 114 in ’02.

This year’s speed figures in preps among the expected 20 Derby starters appear lower than usual.

Only five have cracked the triple-digit mark, including Big Black Jack, who posted the highest Beyer, 109, but that was winning at six furlongs in the Sunshine Millions Dash at Santa Anita on Jan. 26. Since then he averaged 94 running second and third in routes on the cushion track.

Big Brown ran 106 Beyers in both his preps and is the likely post-time favorite on Saturday. The son of Boundary, among a half-dozen horses with only two preps, likes to win on the front end. He ran the Florida Derby’s 1 1/8 miles in 1:48 on March 31 winning by five lengths at Gulfstream Park.

Recapturetheglory, who posted a 102 Beyer winning the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, also led at every call. The son of Cherokee Run ran the 1 1/8 miles in 1:49.

Gayego recorded a 103 Beyer winning the Arkansas Derby on April 12, covering the 1 1/8 miles at Oaklawn Park in 1:49 3/5. The son of Gilded Time ran a 102 taking the San Pedro on Jan. 20, but that was at six furlongs at Santa Anita.

The only other triple-digit Beyer was 102 by Z Fortune, runner-up in the Arkansas Derby, who was just three-quarters of a length behind Gayego. The son of Siphon finished second to Pyro in the Blue Grass on April 12.

Pyro recorded 105 and 100 Beyers last year chasing War Pass in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Champagne Stakes, respectively. War Pass posted 113 and 103 Beyers, respectively, in those races at Monmouth and Belmont, but was injured after failing to win two preps this year.

Eight Belles, a filly that will be entered in the Derby and Kentucky Oaks, posted the only other triple-digit Beyer. Whether she runs against the boys, her interests say, depends on Wednesday’s draw.

The daughter of Unbridled’s Song put up a 100 speed figure in the first of four victories against fillies in a Fair Grounds allowance contest last year. Then she reeled off three consecutives wins in stakes this year.

by Bookmaker Racebook

My list of Top 10 contenders for the 134th Kentucky Derby has changed a bit as the 3-year-olds begin to arrive in Louisville. So Dave Letterman style, from the bottom, here we go again.

10. Denis of Cork/Cowboy Cal: Southwest Stakes winner Denis of Cork joins rankings off bullet breeze of a minute for five furlongs at Churchill Downs, the fastest of 23 clockings on Monday. Horses that work well at the track do well on the first Saturday in May. Jockey Calvin Borel, aboard in his debut victory last year at the track, won with Street Sense in ’07 after a bullet work. Cowboy Cat recorded another bullet breeze, 1:00 2/5 for five furlongs. He might do as well on dirt as he has on grass and synthetic surfaces.

9. Smooth Air: Ran second to the Florida Derby winner after finishing third in the Tampa Bay Derby. If you love Big Brown, then you should like the steadily improving son of Smooth Jazz to hit the board.

8. Recapturetheglory: Wire-to-wire win in Illinois Derby is reminiscent of War Emblem’s front-running victory in the ’02 Kentucky Derby. His speed figure was triple digit in the prep, just like the son of Our Emblem, but the son of Cherokee Run must overcome his breeding shortcomings.

7. Court Vision: Added blinkers and blazed four furlongs in 46 2/5 at Churchill Downs on April 17, the fastest of 25 works by a second. The son of Gulch has a solid juvenile foundation, won a graded ’07 stakes at Churchill Downs, is bred to go 1 ¼ miles and Garrett Gomez chose him over Colonel John.

6. Tale of Ekati: Take of the Cat sibling rebounded from fourth to Pyro in Louisiana Derby to take the Wood. Has solid foundation as a juvenile. Could surprise.

5. Monba: He comes off a Blue Grass victory and travels well on dirt and synthetic surfaces. Bred to go long, son of Maria’s Mon always encountered full fields in six career starts, capturing three.

4. Colonel John: Son of Tiznow closed like an express train to take the Santa Anita Derby. His pedigree indicates he’ll get the distance at Louisville, but the colt has a definite disadvantage having only raced on synthetic surfaces.

3. Gayego: California invader made debut on dirt a winning one in the Arkansas Derby with a four-length triumph. He covered the 1 1/8 miles at Oaklawn Park in 1:49 3/5 – two ticks faster than ’07 Horse of the Year Curlin who posted a record 10 ½-length victory. The son of Gilded Time jogged a mile and galloped another mile Thursday morning.

2. Pyro: He didn’t run a lick from the start of the Blue Grass and obviously didn’t care for the Polytrack. He ran 10th and beat only two horses. That ended his two-race streak in which he posted come-from-behind wins in stakes at Fair Grounds. Many experts say throw out the effort. At least his odds with go up in Louisville. Son of Pulpit still a major threat.

1.Big Brown: Huge Florida Derby victory from the No. 12 post in 1:48 for the 1 1/8 miles was the fastest since ’96 and only a fraction off Gulfstream’s track record. The son of Boundary on Thursday blazed five furlongs in 58 3/5 on Thursday at Palm Meadows Training Center in South Florida, but trainer Richard Trainer wasn’t concerned about the fast time. The colt’s in the catbird seat, but must over the decades-old curse that no runner with only four career outings has smelled the roses since Exterminator in ’18.

by Bookmaker Racebook

I’ve found over the years that it’s better to leisurely handicap the Kentucky Derby for at least a week than start researching on the eve of the first Saturday in May.

Sometimes I take more time when the race appears wide open. Well, this year’s 134th edition is just that.

First, I seclude myself in the quiet confines of my home office after assembling files, which include key preps that I’ve saved along the Road to the Roses dating back to February.

Secondly, I don’t try to assimilate so much information that it confuses rather than helps me. I stick to my general handicapping toolbox that includes speed figures, key races, running styles, distances and track surfaces, plus a couple of new wrinkles each year. I also keep abreast of so-called Derby curses.

Street Sense last year ended a couple of so-called jinxes that existed for decades, including winning off two preps. Previously, only two horses in the past six decades did: Sunny’s Halo in ’83 and Jet Pilot in ’47.

This year there are six contenders hoping to duplicate that feat:

Big Brown: The likely favorite posted the top speed figure this year easily winning Florida Derby. But the undefeated son of Boundary also has three career starts and no runner with four outings has won since Exterminator in 1918.

Colonel John: Son of Tiznow has stakes victories in two ’08 outings, but nary a triple digit speed figure in six career. California invader is trying dirt for the first time.

Monba: He vaulted into the Top3 after Blue Grass victory. Maria’s Mon sibling won on synthetic and dirt surfaces, including Churchill Downs at 2. Keep tabs on his workouts at track.

Recapturetheglory: Illinois Derby winner triggered memories of War Emblem in ’02 wiring the field in both derbies. However, it won’t be easy getting the lead in Louisville.

Tale of Ekati: Wood Memorial hero tries to become the second winner since ’81 when Pleasant Colony triumphed at Churchill Downs. Fusaichi Pegasus did in ’08. He’ll be in the first flight.

Court Vision: This colt reminds me of Funny Cide, winless in three preps, but hit the board twice in ’03. I got 59-1 in my Kentucky Derby futures play and hit the trifecta via simulcasting. Son of Gulch must stay closer and step way up his speed. Won stakes at Churchill Downs last year and posted a bullet work at the track on April 17.

Forget about the horse-for-course angle. In the past decade, only one colt that had one or more starts at the track repeated — Street Sense. Average finish of nearly 50 runners, including nearly two dozen that had previously won over the main track, was well off the board.

More import is how horses handle the main track working toward the Derby. The last two winners posted bullets.

And don’t worry about finding value in the Derby. Since Spectacular Bid won in 1979, only three favorites smelled the roses – all in the 21st Century: Street Sense, 9-2; Fusaichi Pegasus, nearly, 5-2; and Smarty Jones, 4-1 in ’04.

Naturally, fuller fields lead to higher payoffs. From ’92 to ’07, derbies averaged more than 17 ½ runners. There were 18 or more horses entered in 11 of those 16 years, with the lowest, 13, once.

Compare that to the ’60s and ’70s when during a 17-year span nine top choices scored from Carry Back in ’61 to Seattle Slew in ’77. Derbies averaged less than 13 ½ horses in 17 years as fields exceeded 18 twice. There were a dozen runners or fewer five times.

An injury to top contender War Pass announced over the weekend already is affecting Derby futures wagering odds. X-rays showed the son of Cherokee Run suffered a small fracture in his left front ankle, probably during the Wood Memorial on April 5 when he ran second.

My handicapping formula includes selecting horses displaying good tactical swiftness with the ability to stalk over pure speed or those that rally from off the pace, but not too far back. Add pinches of handling bad traffic situations and pedigrees that display stamina.

Finally, stir in a hunch or two and you have my recipe for success.

by Bookmaker Racebook

The 134th Kentucky Derby is around the corner and my list of Top 10 contenders for America’s Greatest Race has changed a bit. There are still ifs and maybes concerning what 3-year-olds will start, but the April preps reduced who will be racing on the third Saturday in May.

So here we go again, Dave Letterman style, from the bottom:

10. Cool Coal Man/Visionaire: Fountain of Youth victor

Cool Coal Man was among several 3-year-olds that disappointed in their debut on a synthetic surface, finishing seventh in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. That ended his two-race win streak accomplished on Gulfstream Park’s dirt track. Visionaire ran fourth after taking the Gotham by a nose at Aqueduct in the slop. The last Kentucky Derby champ to run fourth in the Blue Grass was Thunder Gulch in 1995 when the surface was dirt.

9. Smooth Air: Followed his third in the Tampa Bay Derby with a second behind Florida Derby champ Big Brown. The steadily improving son of Smooth Jazz has a chance to hit the board if he has a clean trip.

8. Court Vision: Hasn’t visited the winner’s circle this year. The son of Gulch duplicated his third-place finish in the FOY in the Wood Memorial, but his speed figures have been on the slow side. Neither ’05 Derby winner Giacomo or ’03 winner Funny Cide had a victory the year they prepped. While this closer has only two races as a sophomore, he boasts a solid foundation as a 2-year-old with a pair of graded stakes victories.

7. Recapturetheglory: The son of Cherokee Run punched his ticket to Churchill Downs with a wire-to-wire victory in the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, reminiscent of ’02 Kentucky Derby winner War Emblem. He continues to improve after finishing second to Cool Coal Man in the FOY.

6. War Pass: Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champ rebounded from his seventh and last place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby to second in the Wood. He posted quick fractions, but fell a half-length short after the 1 1/8 miles. The big question for another Cherokee Run sibling– can he go 1 ¼ miles on May 3?

5. Tale of Ekati: Take of the Cat sibling rebounded from fourth to Pyro in Louisiana Derby to take the Wood. Has solid foundation as a juvenile. Could surprise.

4. Gayego: California invader made his debut on the dirt a winning one in the Arkansas Derby with a four-length triumph. The son of Gilded Time covered the 1 1/8 miles at Oaklawn Park in 1:49 3/5 – two ticks faster than ’07 Horse of the Year Curlin when he posted a record 10 ½-length victory.

3. Colonel John: The son of Tiznow closed like a freight train to take the Santa Anita Derby. His pedigree indicates he can get the distance at Louisville, but the colt has a definite disadvantage having only raced on synthetic surfaces.

2. Pyro: The son of Pulpit didn’t run a lick from the start of the Blue Grass and obviously didn’t care for the Polytrack. He ran 10th and beat only two horses. That ended his two-race streak in which he posted come-from-behind wins in stakes at Fair Grounds. Many experts say throw out the effort. At least his odds with go up in Louisville.

1.Big Brown: Huge Florida Derby victory from the No. 12 post boosts this son of Boundary to top of the heap. His 1:48 for the 1 1/8 miles was the fastest since ’96 and only a fraction off Gufstream’s track record. On Saturday, he worked five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 on the dirt at Palm Meadows Training Center. He’s in the catbird seat, but must over the decades-old curse that no runner with only four career outings has smelled the roses since Exterminator in ’18.

by Bookmaker Racebook

Final Story: Broke seventh and last, trailed by more than 8 ½ lengths after a half-mile, swung wide into stretch, rallied from sixth to make up more than four lengths and finished a game second beaten a neck at six furlongs on April 10; ran final quarter in 23 4/5.

Roxanne’s Dancer: Broke sixth and last, trailed by more than nine lengths after a half-mile, spilt rivals on turn, rallied three wide from fourth in stretch, made up nearly 3 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a head at seven furlongs on April 10.

Millennium Jet: Steadied early, dropped back to ninth 22 lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied inside on far turn from a dozen lengths back, angled out in stretch from fourth, made up 4 ½ lengths and finished a game second beaten a neck at 1 1/16 miles on a good turf course April 7.

Irish Blast: Pressed pace inside in third a head and length back after a half-mile, rallied wide to gain lead in stretch and drew off by 4 ½ lengths at six furlongs on a sealed sloppy surface on March 8. (Bumped at break, tracked pace in third more than 1 ½ lengths after a half-mile, rallied three wide into stretch, drew clear when roused and won by four lengths at 6 ½ furlongs on April 5.)

GULFSTREAM PARK

Sweet Love: Raced more than three lengths behind in eighth after a half-mile, rallied four wide into stretch, closed well to make up more than 2 ¾ lengths and finished second beaten three-quarters of a length 7 ½ furlongs on the turf April 10.

Manhasset Indian: Raced more than seven lengths behind in eighth after three-eighths of a mile, eased out in stretch, rallied from sixth to make up more than 5 ¼ lengths and finished second full of run beaten 1 ¼ lengths at five furlongs on the turf March 28.

Sibari Son: Broke from outside post sixth and last, advanced to fourth more than 2 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, boxed in entering turn, pinched back to fifth losing ground, found room along rail entering stretch, rallied to make up nearly 2 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a neck at a mile on March 5.

Pick Six: Broke slowly 11th and last, moved to eighth early, dropped to ninth more than fourth lengths behind after a half-mile, raced four wide around far turn, rallied to third in stretch, made up 2 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a half-length at 1 1/16 miles on Feb. 8; fan final 2 ½ furlongs in 30 seconds.

Porticipation: Broke slowly 13th and last, moved to eighth early, dropped to ninth more than six lengths behind after a half-mile, angled out for stretch run, rallied from sixth to make up more than 3 ¾ lengths and gained second by 1 ¾ lengths at a mile on Feb. 8; ran final quarter in 24 1/5.

Lady Byar: Broke slowly, raced fifth early, dropped to sixth and last 8 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, angled out for drive and rallied from fifth in stretch to gain second by 1 ¾ lengths at seven furlongs on Feb. 27; returned $10.80 for place. (Broke alertly, taken back, trailed by 7 ½ lengths after a half-mile, rallied from fifth in stretch and gained third by a half-length at a mile on March 27.)

HAWTHORNE

Ricigliano: Shuffled back at break, raced six lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, lugged out in stretch, recovered to make up more than three lengths and finished second beaten a half-length at six furlongs on April 11.

J C Warrior: Pressed pace in third within a length after a half-mile, lost ground four wide into stretch, made up 1 ½ lengths in stretch and finished second beaten a neck at six furlongs on April 5; ran final quarter in 24 4/5.

Sole of the City: Broke on top, stalked pace early, led by 1 ½ lengths after a half-mile, seized command on turn, increased margin to five lengths in stretch and drew off by 10 ¼ lengths under token right-handed encouragement at six furlongs on March 7; ran final quarter in 23 3/5. (Pressed pace a half-length behind in second after three-eighths of a mile, seized command in stretch and drew off by 1 ¾ lengths under firm handling at 5 ½ furlongs on a sealed sloppy surface on March 22.)

KEENELAND

Sandstorm Cat: Raced sixth early, checked sharply in traffic along backstretch, dropped to 10th and last more than seven lengths behind after a half-mile, came out wide from sixth in stretch, rallied impressively to make up more than 3 ¾ lengths and finished best of all in second beaten 1 ¼ lengths at seven furlongs on April 12; ran final three furlongs in 35 2/5.

Gypsy Baby: Raced eighth more than 5 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, advanced boldly seven wide to sixth in stretch, rallied from sixth to make up more than 3 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a neck at 1 1/16 miles on the turf April 9.

LAUREL PARK

Honor Student: Broke a step slow, raced four lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, lost several lengths around far turn, angled out from rail for drive, made up more than 5 ¼ lengths in stretch and finished third beaten a neck and a head at 1 1/16 miles on Feb. 20.

Diller: Trailed by more than 14 ½ lengths after a half-mile, advanced from eighth to fifth in stretch, made up more than five lengths and finished second by a nose at 1 1/16 miles on Feb. 7.

OAKLAWN PARK

Splash of Bold: Tracked pace more than four lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, rallied four wide on turn to second in stretch and won by a half-length at six furlongs on March 26. (Broke sharply, set pace by a half-length after a half-mile, shook clear by three lengths in mid-stretch and won by a half-length at six furlongs on April 6; returned $12.60 on front end.)

PHILADELPHIA PARK

Spirit of Gulch: Broke from 10th and outside post, raced more than three lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, spilt foes in stretch and made up nearly 2 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a nose at six furlongs on April 7.

De Fearless One: Raced more than 6 ½ lengths behind in seventh after three-eighths of a mile, rallied extremely wide from fourth in stretch, made up more than 3 ¾ lengths and closed with good energy to finished second beaten three-quarters of a length at 5 ½ furlongs on March 25. (Broke fifth and last, advanced to third more than 1 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied to second on stretch, but couldn’t catch winner and held place at six furlongs on April 13.)

Rymar: Raced more than 5 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, split rivals on turn losing ground, rallied from sixth to make up 6 ¼ lengths in stretch and gained second by a head at 6 ½ furlongs on Feb. 5.

Jorkat Slew: Raced fourth more than two lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied to second in stretch, but couldn’t catch winner and held place by a half-length at 6 ½ furlongs on Feb. 17. (Raced 5 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, bore out badly on turn, rallied to make up five lengths in stretch and finished second beaten a half-length at six furlongs on March 22.)

SANTA ANITA

Excessive Fun: Broke slowly, raced ninth more than eight lengths behind after a half-mile, moved up off rail around rival to fourth in stretch, steadied slightly at sixteenth pole and rallied late to make up three lengths and finished second beaten a half-length at 6 ½ furlongs on April 7.

River Echo: Crowded after breaking seventh and last, raced 4 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, came out four wide into stretch, made up four lengths and finished well in second beaten a half-length at six furlongs on March 27; ran final quarter in 23 1/5.

Sure Thing Eva: Raced seventh more than 3 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied inside from fifth to make up three lengths in stretch and finished second beaten a head at seven furlongs on Feb. 2; ran final three furlongs in 36 2/5.

TURF PARADISE

Tenatious: Raced in close at start, tracked pace in fifth more than two lengths behind after a half-mile, lost about two lengths on turn, made up 2 ¾ lengths in stretch and finished a game second beaten three-quarters of a length at about a mile on the turf April 11.

Sharpster: Raced more than four lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, came six wide into stretch, rallied to make up more than 3 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a nose at mile on March 28.

Miss Dow Jones: Broke seventh and last, raced more than 1 ½ lengths behind in sixth after three-eighths of a mile, eased out in stretch, made up more than 2 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a length at 5 ½ furlongs on Feb. 8.

Crazy Girl: Led by a head after a half-mile, battled winner into stretch and gave ground grudgingly late and finished second beaten a length at six furlongs on Feb. 4. (Set pace, leading by a half-length after a half-mile, dug in gamely down the stretch and finished second beaten a nose at six furlongs on a sealed wet fast surface Feb. 22.)

by Bookmaker Racebook

Three years ago Bellamy Road roared to a 17 ½-length victory in the Wood Memorial, equaling the Aqueduct record of 1:47 for 1 1/8 miles on the main track set by Riva Ridge.

Riva Ridge was 4 at the time in 1973, a year after he won the Kentucky Derby. His final prep at 3 was the Blue Grass in Keeneland where he scored.

Bellamy Road went into the ’05 Derby favored over 19 other 3-year-olds. But the son of Concerto, never reached the lead, gained second in the stretch and faded to seventh.

Now Big Brown is the speedster on the Road to the Roses. Both colts had one thing in column:

They led both their preps as sophomores at every call and won by big margins. Bellamy Road averaged 16 ½ lengths while Big Brown averaged more than 8 ¾ lengths.

However, Bellamy Road went to Churchill Downs with five career starts while Big Brown only has run three times. Bellamy Road’s races were all on the dirt and he won four. Undefeated Big Brown scored once on the turf as a 2-year-old.

So are we expecting too much from the Florida Derby champ? Perhaps, but it appears he might go into the Kentucky Derby as the favorite since he ended up the 3-1 choice in Pool 3 of futures wagering. He wasn’t even listed in the first two pools.

Big Brown’s five-length victory in the Florida Derby on March 31 was the third best in the past dozen years.

In ’03, the record 9 ¾ lengths was posted by Empire Maker, runner-up to Funny Cide at Louisville. In ’96, the margin was 5 ¼ lengths by Unbridled’s Song, who didn’t hit the board at Churchill Downs.

In the past 28 Runs for the Roses, the winning margin averaged about two lengths. For the seven years beginning in ’01, the Derby champ was victorious by nearly 3 ¼ lengths, with the ill-fated Barbaro coming off the pace to triumph by 6 1/2 lengths, second biggest in history.

During the previous seven years, less than a length separated the winner from the runner-up. The closest races were in ’99, Charismatic, by a neck; ’97, Silver Charm, a head; and ’96, Grindstone, a nose.

Four Derby champs share the record for the top margin of eight lengths: Old Rosebud, ’14; Johnstown, ’39; Whirlaway, ’41; and Assault, ’46. Whirlaway and Assault won the Triple Crown.

So far, Big Brown’s speed figures this year are higher than any other contender. And lightly raced horses have done well during the past decade at Louisville.

But Big Brown is trying to buck the odds concerning experience. He had only one race as a 2-year-old and that was on the grass. And he’s among several sophomores attempting to become the first since Exterminator in ’18 to score with only four trips to the post.

Curlin came into last year’s Derby with nary a race as a juvenile and only two preps. Alas, he finished a valiant third.

But the son of Smart Strike won the Preakness and the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and was voted the Horse of the Year. Then he captured this year’s Dubai World Cup.

We shall see if Big Brown can do as well.

by Bookmaker Racebook

Last year’s Blue Grass Stakes was the most exciting in years when a nose and two heads separated the top four finishers. However, it was the 57th slowest of 83 races: 1:51 1/5 for the 1 1/8 miles.

Dominican edged Street Sense for his third straight triumph on synthetic surfaces. Zanjero ran third and Teuflesberg finished fourth.

But Street Sense got revenge on the first Saturday in May when he roared to victory from far back. Domincan ended up a disappointing 11th after the 1 ¼ miles. Zanjero was 13th and Teuflesberg ran 17th in the 20-horse field.

None of the three main contenders in Saturday’s $750,000 headliner at Keeneland have run on synthetic surfaces, but all captured their last stakes. The likely favorite is Pyro, who goes for three straight this year after impressive victories in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds.

The son of Pulpit looked cool and calm during schooling on April 5 at Keeneland where he galloped 1 ½ miles over the Polytrack. On Monday, he breezed four furlongs in 50 3/5.

Visionaire is coming off a nose victory on a foggy March 8 in the Gotham at Aqueduct over a sealed sloppy surface. Earlier, the son of Grand Slam finished third to Pyro in the Risen Star.

Cool Coal Man also is going for three consecutive triumphs in ’08. The son of Mineshaft, ’03 Horse of the Year as a 4-year-old, defeated Elysium Fields and Court Vision in a strong Fountain of Youth (FOY) 12-horse field at Gulfstream Park. He breezed four furlongs in 47 2/5 at Churchill Downs on April 3.

Miner’s Claim, another Mineshaft sibling, came up a neck short to Big Glen in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park in his only start this year. He won twice on Woodbine’s synthetic surface in ’07. On April 5, he breezed five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 at Kenneland.

Cowboy Cal, coming off four straight outings on the turf, won the Tropical Park Derby at Calder and most recently was second in Gulfstream’s Hallandale Beach. He worked a half-mile in 47 2/5 on Sunday at Keeneland.

Other likely starters are Halo Najib, runner-up to Adriano in the Lane’s End at Turfway on March 22; Medjool, the third-place finisher; and Monba, the FOY trailer.

The Blue Grass has produced two-dozen Kentucky Derby champions since Judge Himes finished third in ’03 before capturing the 29th Run for the Roses.

However, only two runners that won the key prep in the past three decades were successful at Churchill Downs: Strike the Gold, ’91, and Spectacular Bid, ’79. Ten horses took both races starting with Shut Out in ’42.

Saturday’s $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park appears wide open. Only four horses captured stakes this year.

Contenders that have received the most press are Z Fortune, who won the Lecomte at Fair Grounds, but ran a disappointing fifth in the Rebel at Oaklawn; Gayego, second in the San Felipe after taking the San Pedro at Santa Anita; and Liberty Bull, winner of the Win Star Derby at Sunland after scoring another two races back in Oaklawn’s Smarty Jones.

Z Fortune worked five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 over a good Oaklawn surface March 31. Gayego breezed six furlongs in an eye-catching 1:12 4/5 at Hollywood Park on April 5. Liberty Bull breezed four furlongs in the mud in 48 2/5 at Churchill Downs on April 5.

Two horses that broke their maiden this year and followed with winning allowance efforts are Jazz in the Park and My Pal Charlie, who was second in the Louisiana Derby.

Isabull and Blackberry Road each are winless in three outings in ’08, but could surprise in the 1 1/8 mile contest. Isabull hit the board twice at Oaklawn, finishing third in the Smarty Jones. Blackberry Road was runner-up in the Lecomte, fifth in the Risen Star and fourth in the Louisiana Derby.

Only two 3-year-olds repeated in the Kentucky Derby: Smarty Jones in ’04, who also took the Preakness, and Sunny’s Halo in ’83.

In ’05, Afleet Alex ran third at Churchill Downs, and then scored in the Preakness and Belmont. Last year, Curlin hit the board in all three Triple Crown events, winning the Preakness, and capturing the Breeders’ Cup Classic en route to Horse of the Year honors.

by Bookmaker Racebook