Welcome to horse racing’s Fear Factor. The television series that ran from 2001 through last year captured the attention of many viewers.

Racing’s version goes back many decades. I’m talking years and years. But the measure of success depends on your point of view. Let me count the ways.

In ’73, only four horses challenged Secretariat in the third leg of his Triple Crown sweep for obvious reasons. Five years later the same number tried to derail Affirmed’s gallop into Triple Crown history, among them Alydar, the runner-up all three times.

Fast forward to ’94, when Go for Gin won the Kentucky Derby and Tabasco Cat took the Preakness. Only four others challenged the pair in the Belmont – for good reason. Tabasco Cat defeated Go for Gin by two lengths.

Three years later, Silver Charm and Free House scared away challengers and only five showed up. Unfortunately, one of them was Touch Gold, who denied Silver Charmer the Triple Crown by three-quarters of a length.

In ’03, Funny Cide was trying to become the 12th Triple Crown champion and only five horses were entered. Among them was Empire Maker, the Kentucky Derby runner-up that skipped the Preakness, who ended Funny Cide’s dream.

It appears the Fear Factor is at work again. During the 21st Century, no less than nine horses, except for ’03, ran in the Belmont. The only way that will happen is if Kentucky Oaks winner Rags to Riches takes on the boys.

And the only way that could happen is if one of the Big 3 –Curlin, Street Sense or Hard Spun — stays in the barn, according to trainer Todd Pletcher.

In addition, Rags to Riches regular rider Garrett Gomez is replacing Mario Pino on Hard Spun. And John Velazquez, Pletcher’s main jockey who rode Circular Quay in the first two legs of the Triple Crown, will ride Slew’s Tizzy.

Pletcher, however, hasn’t ruled out either horse, bit hints only one is likely to go: “All that means is that those guys can’t wait around long enough for somebody to made a decision. If (Circular Quay) runs, we’ll get somebody on him.”

Great Hunter was committed to the Belmont, but “he didn’t cool out super well on Thursday (May 24)” after a five-furlong workout over Hollywood Park’s cushion track, said trainer Doug O’Neill. “We didn’t think much of it at the time. The next day, when the poultice was washed off his leg, we noticed some filling.”

X-rays showed a chip in his right front ankle that will require surgery. “He’s a strong, solid horse,” O’Neill said, “so we’ll be in good shape when he returns.”

Right now the likely seven-horse field is Curlin, Street Sense, Hard Spun, Slew’s Tizzy, Imawildandcrazyguy, Tiago and Sightseeing.

That could change, but there are plenty of lucrative purses awaiting 3-year-olds once summer heats up.

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ARLINGTON PARK

Metts Ready: Raced off rail in fourth more than two lengths behind after a half-mile, lost ground entering stretch, made up more than 4 ¼ lengths and gained second by a nose at 6 ½ furlongs on May 26.

Altercation: Bumped at break, trailed by more than six lengths after a half-mile, rallied from 10th to fourth in stretch, made up 2 ½ lengths and lost by a neck and 1 ¼ lengths at six furlongs on May 13; ran final quarter in 24 flat.

Sadler’s Trick: Taken up at break, raced seventh early, trailed 6 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, ranged up six wide for drive, moved from eighth to fifth in stretch and rallied late to third beaten a nose and a neck at a mile on May 5.

BELMONT

Exton: Broke eighth, crowded at start, raced three wide in sixth more than 3 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, advanced to third in stretch, finished well to make up 3 ¼ lengths and finished second beaten 1 ¼ lengths at 1 1/16 miles on the turf May 24.

Dave: Steadied along inside early, raced eighth more than two lengths behind after a half-mile, came wide into stretch losing ground; rallied from fifth to make up four lengths and lost by a half-length and neck at 1 1/8 miles on a good turf course May 13; ran final furlong in 11 3/5.

Sweet Ransom: Rank in the gate, raced 9 ½ lengths behind in third after a half-mile, rallied wide to challenge leader at six furlong marker, bumped with winner in upper stretch and lost by three-quarters of a length at a mile on the turf May 4.

Against the Grain: Raced third early, dropped back to fourth more than three lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied three wide approaching stretch, bumped with winner in upper stretch, gained lead briefly by a head, steadied when that rival came out near wire and lost by a length at a mile on a good surface April 13 at Aqueduct. (Contested pace right from the start between rivals in second a half-length behind after a half-mile, responded when roused to take lead on far turn and drew clear by 5 ¾ lengths at a mile on May 3.)

Fearless Vision: Chased pace 2 ½ lengths behind in third after a half-mile, swung four wide for drive and gained second by a head at 1 1/8 miles on March 31. (Tracked pace outside in fourth close up, rallied to second in stretch, dug in gamely and finished third beaten a nose and a neck at 1 1/8 miles on May 20.)

CALDER

Cajulena: Hit gate at break, steadied to avoid pulled up rival on backstretch, raced four lengths behind in fifth after three-eighths of a mile, rallied to third in stretch and gained second by a half-length at five furlongs on a good turf course May 25.

Angel Wings: Flew out of the gate on rail to the front, led by three after a half-mile, drew off through the stretch to win by 12 ¾ lengths in a hand ride at six furlongs on May 14.

Lady Tropicana: Trailed by 13 lengths after a half-mile, swung out in 10th for drive, rallied to sixth in stretch, made up 4 ¾ lengths and finished full of run second by a head at a mile on the grass May 6; ran final quarter in 23 1/5. (Raced 4 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, angled three wide on far turn, grabbed lead by five lengths and won by 12 ½ lengths ridden out at 1 1/16 miles on May 27.)

Swift Mercedes: Pinched back at break, trailed by more than 10 lengths after a half-mile, closed well from seventh in stretch to make up more than 4 ½ lengths and finished third beaten a half-length and three-quarters of a length at a mile on the turf April 25.

CHURCHILL DOWNS

Euphoric: Bumped at break by third-place finisher, trailed early, advanced to sixth more than 4 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied four wide to fifth in stretch, made up more than 3 ½ lengths and gained second by three-quarters of a length at 6 ½ furlongs on May 25; ran final 2 ½ furlongs in 30 4/5.

Hold the Salt: Bumped at break, forced out on rival, raced fifth more than 1 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, lost ground rallying five wide to third in stretch, made up nearly 2 ½ lengths and lost by a neck at five furlongs on the turf on May 13. (Raced sixth four wide six lengths behind after three-eighths of a mile, closed determinedly from third in stretch and won by a half-length at five furlongs on May 28.)

Whatsthescript: Encountered trouble racing fifth along backstretch, advanced to fourth 2 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, steadied on far turn, dropped to sixth, worked way out five wide for drive, blocked briefly in stretch, closed from fourth to make up 3 ½ lengths and lost by a half-length at 1 1/16 miles on a yielding turf course May 9.

Tell It All: Raced fourth more than two lengths behind after a half-mile, steadied when faded rival lost rider, carried extremely wide around turn losing ground to last, recovered advancing to fourth in stretch, rallied to make up more than 2 ¼ lengths and finished second beaten three-quarters of a length at a mile on May 1.

Nonesuch Kiss: Broke awkwardly, trailed early, raced seventh more than 8 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, came eight wide entering stretch in fifth, bumped, forced out by third-place finisher at sixteenth pole, recovered, made up more than 2 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a half-length at seven furlongs on April 21 at Keeneland. (Raced sixth more than seven lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied five wide approaching stretch, took over about sixteenth pole and drew off by 1 ¼ lengths at seven furlongs on May 16; returned $16.20 on front end.)

DELAWARE PARK

Queen of the Turf: Raced sixth early, fell back to eighth more than 3 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, checked in tight quarters on far turn, dropped to ninth four wide for the drive, angled in advancing to fifth in stretch, rallied to make up more than three lengths and finished second beaten a neck at 1 1/16 miles on the turf April 27 at Calder. (Raced sixth more than 4 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, made a sweeping move to gain the lead put of the far turn, drew off by 3 ½ lengths in mid-stretch and prevailed by 1 ¼ lengths under brisk handling at about 1 1/16 miles on the turf May 23.)

HOLLYWOOD PARK

Brooker: Trailed early, raced six lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied outside three deep into stretch, rallied from fifth to make up more than 2 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a half-length at six furlongs on May 25; ran final quarter in 24 flat.

Vaunt: A bit slow to begin, trailed inside by three lengths after a half-mile, came out entering stretch, closed willingly from fourth to make up more than 2 ¾ lengths and finished second beaten a neck at six furlongs on the turf April 27.

Red Opal: Raced seventh early, dropped to eighth more than 7 ½ lengths after a half-mile, came three deep into stretch, drifted in a bit, rallied to make up more than 4 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a neck at six furlongs on the turf April 25; ran final quarter in 22 4/5.

LOUISIANA DOWNS

Livvy Leigh: Raced 10th more than 10 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, came widest for the drive, closed fast from seventh losing ground entering stretch to make by 12 lengths and lost by a head at a mile on the turf May 13; ran final quarter in 24 3/5. (Broke seventh in tight at start, raced eighth early, dropped to last more than 8 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, encountered heavy traffic turning for home, advanced to sixth in stretch, altered course to outside looking for room at furlong marker, closed fast to make up 5 ¾ lengths and gained third by a half-length at about a mile on the turf May 25; ran final quarter in 24 3/5.)

MONMOUTH

Absolved: Raced third early, checked in traffic at half-mile pole, dropped to fourth 2 ½ lengths behind, saved ground to turn, made up two lengths in stretch and lost by a half-length at six furlongs on May 12. (Dueled for lead a head in front through a half-mile and finished second by 2 ¼ lengths at six furlongs on May 28.)

PHILADELPHIA PARK

Storm a Brewing: Raced fifth early, dropped to sixth more than seven lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied wide into stretch, made up more than seven lengths in stretch and finished third beaten a half-length and a nose at six furlongs on May 12.

Precisely Sue: Tracked pace more than 2 ½ lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, shuffled back between rivals midway around turn, closed in final furlong to make up nearly 2 ½ lengths in stretch and lost by a head at six furlongs on March 27.

Cabo Rojo: Raced seventh more than five lengths behind after a half-mile, moved up inside to fifth in stretch, made up more 2 ½ lengths and lost by a half-length at six furlongs on Feb. 17.

PIMLICO

Songapproved: Raced 10th more than 10 ½ lengths after a half-mile, rallied along rail in stretch from sixth to make up more than 3 ¼ lengths and finished third beaten 1 ¼ lengths and a neck at 1 1/16 miles on the turf May 24.

Andiamo: Steadied in tight soon after start, trailed by nine lengths after a half-mile, raced nearly four wide advancing from 10th to seventh in stretch, angled in leaving eight pole, made up more than 4 ¾ lengths and lost by a head and 1 ¼ lengths at six furlongs on May 19; ran final quarter in 23 3/5.

Red Da Riotact: Fractious in gate, raced eighth more than 6 ½ lengths behind after three-eighths of a mile, checked in traffic near quarter pole, rallied outside from sixth to make up 5 ¼ lengths in stretch and finished third beaten 1 ¼ lengths and a neck at five furlongs on the turf May 6.

SUFFOLK DOWNS

Could Be You: Unprepared for break, trailed by seven lengths after a half-mile, angled out six wide for drive, closed well to third in stretch, made up by 4 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a length at six furlongs on a wet fast surface on April 27; ran final quarter in 24 3/5 at Pimlico. (Dueled for lead inside a half-length in front after a half-mile, surged clear under urging in stretch and drew off by 7 ½ lengths at six furlongs on May 9.)

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Rivalries Make for Great Triple Crown Races

Rivalries have added thrills galore to racing throughout the years, especially during the Triple Crown season.

Affirmed and Alydar battling in the 1978 Triple Crown season was especially electrifying as Affirmed edged Alydar in all three races to become the 11th and last TC champion.

In ’89, Easy Goer and Sunday Silence clashed three times. The runner-up in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness thwarted Sunday Silence’s bid for a sweep by taking the Belmont Stakes.

The next year, Unbridled and Summer Squall went at it twice. Trainer Carl Nafzger prevailed in the Kentucky Derby over Summer Squall, but the bridesmaid turned the tables in the Preakness.

Nafzger aims to avoid history repeating itself in the 132nd Preakness when he saddles impressive Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense on Saturday.

Trainer Larry Jones, however, is confident his Hard Spun can avenge his second place finish in Louisville and capture the 1 3/16 mile contest at Pimlico.

“We may have to do something different here if we are going to spoil his Triple Crown,” Jones said. “I like Carl a lot, but I don’t intend for him to have the Triple Crown.”

There are similarities between Hard Spun and Summer Squall:

In ’90, Unbridled came from well off the pace to gain the lead in the Derby by a length with a furlong to go and drew off by 3 ½ lengths. This year, Street Sense came from far back to lead by a length with a furlong to go and drew clear by 2 ¼ lengths.

In ’90, Summer Squall was second with a furlong to go in the Derby and ran second. Earlier that year, he won the Jim Beam Stakes, now known as the Lane’s End, at Turfway Park. This year, Hard Spun was second a furlong from the Churchill Downs wire and finished second. Earlier, he won the Lane’s End.

In ’90, Summer Squall defeated Unbridled in the Preakness. Can Hard Spun duplicate that feat?

Maybe, but the odds favor Street Sense for several reasons. First, eight of the last 20 Derby winners prevailed in the Preakness. In the 21st Century, two scored with the greatest of ease: Smarty Jones by 11 ½ lengths in ’04 and Funny Cide the previous year by 9 ¾ lengths.

Secondly, the only Derby runner-up to take the Preakness since Summer Squall was Prairie Bayou in ’93.

So I like Street Sense to win the $1 million Preakness.

Calvin Borel will keep the son of Street Cry closer to the pace and there are at least 10 fewer foes than on May 5.

Check out Street Sense’s six races at a mile or longer: He was on the lead in the stretch for half of them, but no farther behind than three-quarters of a length.

The horses I believe will give him the most trouble and hit the board are:

Curlin: This lightly raced colt was steadied early after breaking from Post 2 in the Derby, encounter tight quarters between horses along the backstretch, advanced to eighth through traffic after a mile and rallied to run third.

In all three previous outings, the improving son of Smart Strike grabbed a comfortable lead in the stretch and cruised home averaging 9 ½ lengths ahead at the wire.

King of the Roxy: The Santa Anita Derby runner-up, one of a half-dozen horses in the expected nine-horse field that skipped America’s Race, has been working well at regular intervals since April 22. On Saturday, he breezed 1:14 2/5 for six furlongs on the Belmont Park training track.

The son of Littleexpectations, with John Velazquez climbing aboard for trainer Todd Pletcher, possesses the favorable stalking style needed to win at Pimlico.

There will be no lack of speed with three starters likely contesting the lead: Hard Sun, runner-up in the Derby; Flying First Class, winner of the Derby Trial; and Xchanger, victorious in the Federico Tesio at Pimlico.

Maybe one will hit the board, but I don’t look for any to visit the winner’s circle.

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Preakness Is a Most Historic Triple Crown Jewel

Ulysses S. Grant was president, the U.S. population was 38,558,371 and there were 37 states when Pimlico Race Course opened in Baltimore.

In 1868, Maryland Gov. Oden Bowie and his friends, prominent racing figures, agreed at a dinner party in Saratoga to commemorate the evening with a race in two years for yearlings at the time.

Both Saratoga, the first U.S. track that debuted four years earlier, and the American Jockey Club bid for the event. But Bowie pledged to build a model track in Maryland if the race was staged there.

Two years later, the Dinner Party Stakes was launched for 3-year-old colts and fillies at two miles. It’s now known as the Dixie Handicap. In 1873, Pimlico introduced a new race for 3-year-olds named for the inaugural Dinner Stakes winner: Preakness.

On a warm, muggy May 27, seven horses raced 1 ½ miles before a crowd of 12,000. The winner of the first Preakness was Survivor, who stormed home by 10 lengths, the largest margin of victory for 13 decades until Smarty Jones cruised to an 11 ½-length victory.

The race, at 12 furlongs until 1890 except for 1 ¼ miles in 1889, has been run at seven different distances from a mile to 1 1/8 miles until 1924. The next year, the current 1 3/16 miles was inaugurated.

In ’06, a record 118,402 turned out for the Preakness – the largest crowd to witness a sporting event in Maryland.

The morning after Street Sense scored by 2 ¼ lengths in the 133rd Kentucky Derby, winning trainer Carl Nafzger immediately informed the Marylard Jockey Club that the son of Street Cry will race in the $1 million Preakness on May 19.

There could be as many as a dozen starters in the 131st Preakness. Up to five also-rans at Churchill Downs could challenge Street Sense, including Hard Spun, the runner-up that led the first eight furlongs of the 1 ¼ miles, and Curlin, who rallied from eighth a quarter-mile out to finish third.

Only two that skipped America’s Race in the past 16 years won at Pimlico: Bernardini last year and Red Bullet in ’00. Ironically, during that time span, there were fewer than 10 starters both years: Nine in ’06 and seven in ’00.

Of six horses that bypassed Louisville for the expected trip to Baltimore, three are most likely to race: Santa Anita runner-up King of the Roxy, trained by Todd Pletcher who went 0 for 5 at Churchill Downs; Chelokee, third in the Florida Derby; and Flying First Class, victorious in the Derby Trial.

During the early ’80s, three horses passing on the first jewel of the Triple Crown wore the Black-Eyed Susans: Codex, ’80; Aloma’s Ruler, ’82; and Deputed Testimony, ’83.

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I like to concentrate on the can dos instead of the can nots when handicapping the Kentucky Derby. So I’m going to accentuate the positive, reminiscent of the hit song in 1944.

So here I ago with some key tools to help you figure out what 3-year-olds are worth considering on Saturday:

Since a good foundation is most helpful, look for horses that ran at least once as a 2-year-old and had good speed figures, plus those that won at a mile or longer.

The top contenders, in alphabetical order, fit all three horseshoes: Any Given Saturday, Domincan, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Scat Daddy, Stormello and Street Sense.

Thoroughbreds with at least one stakes victory under their saddle, no matter how brief their career, do significantly better in the Run for the Roses. In fact, 48 of the last 50 winners demonstrate that. And 45 that hit the board in their final prep also won.

Since a majority of those that scored on the first Saturday in May visited the winner’s circle in their last outing, watch out for Circular Quay, Cowtown Cat, Domincan, Hard Spun, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Scat Daddy and Tiago.

The norm for the number of preps that have produced winners since the mid-1980s has been three or four races. So pay special attention to Cowtown Cat, Hard Spun, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Tiago.

My recipe for success includes good tactical speed with the ability to stalk over pure speed or those that rally from back of the pack. Add pinches of handling bad traffic situations and pedigrees that display stamina. Stir in hunches and viola – you have my formula for success.

All my chief contenders have several other things in common, including being lightly raced with no more than seven career starts. In addition, I’m throwing in some criticism now that we’re down to the nitty-gritty.

Without further fanfare, here are my selections for the 133rd edition of America’s Race starting with those that have the best chance of hitting the board:

Scat Daddy: Son of Joannesberg is the only horse to post two graded stakes wins at 1 1/8 miles. Although taking a five-week break since winning the Florida Derby, he did capture the Grade 1 Champagne off a nearly six-week layoff last year. Edgar Prado seeks to repeat his winning ride on Barbaro for trainer Todd Pletcher.

Domincan: Son of El Corredor must prove he can step up on the dirt after going 3 for 3 on synthetic surfaces. His workout at Churchill Downs on Sunday was fast, but a bit jerky, according to one observer. He did race twice last year at Louisville, but previous experience on the main track hasn’t assured victory on the first Saturday in May.

Street Sense: Son of Street Cry has looked great working at Churchill Downs where he ran away with last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, whipping four current Derby contenders. However, the average finish in the big race of more than four-dozen runners, including nearly half that triumphed, was well off the board.

While he only has two preps like Dominican, he is bred to run all day. Trainer Carl Nafzger hopes to saddle his second Derby winner since Unbridled in ’90.

Hard Spun: His successful formula of speed and stamina produced a notable record of 5 for 6, with four stakes triumphs. The son of Danzig not only led in the stretch of all five wins but also increased the margins the wire. However, he does come off a six-week layoff

And now, drum roll please, the winner will come from this pair that will hit the board:

Cowtown Cat: His Illinois Derby victory reminds me of War Emblem, who romped in ’02, last of three Derby winners saddled by Bob Baffert. One of five Pletcher trainees, the son of Distorted Humor goes for his third straight stakes victory and has been working well.

Nobiz Like Shobiz: The son of Albert the Great, with a pedigree that screams stamina, has the winning profile that includes four victories, including two in graded stakes at 1 1/8 miles this spring with blinkers added and last fall, plus three Derby preps. In addition, the colt is trained by Barclay Tagg, who saddled ’03 Derby winner Funny Cide.

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